Role of Nuclear in Germany’s Decarbonisation
Role of Nuclear in Germany’s Decarbonisation
Germany’s energy transition, known as the Energiewende, is centred on deploying renewable energy sources and phasing out fossil fuels and nuclear power to achieve climate neutrality by 20451. While the transition to renewable energy has been progressing, the nuclear phase-out reaching completion in April 2023 has introduced new challenges, especially in maintaining energy security, affordability, and resilience. The exclusion of nuclear energy, once seen as a reliable low-carbon energy source, has raised concerns about the ability to meet Germany’s ambitious climate goals while keeping energy costs competitive, especially for industry2.
Germany’s nuclear phase-out has sparked extensive analysis3,4 with studies emphasising the missed opportunities for deeper emissions reductions and cost savings if the nuclear fleet had remained operational. However, the focus now shifts to the future. While recent reports explore the potential for restarting recently closed reactors by the early 2030s5 . Weplanet DACH commissioned us at QuantifiedCarbon to envision Germany’s power system in 2045 when climate neutrality is targeted.
This report examines two technology pathways—one including nuclear power and one excluding it—against the backdrop of projected developments in the European electricity market. Key factors shaping this future include high CO₂ prices, strong electrification driving growing power demand, enhanced demand-side flexibility, cost reductions for supply technologies, decarbonised power trade, and a maturing European nuclear industry. By leveraging a sophisticated modelling framework that incorporates realistic electricity market dynamics across 33 historical weather years, this analysis highlights the potential role nuclear power could play in fostering a resilient, competitive, and fully decarbonised German economy.
The two scenarios for Germany’s power system are defined as “Nuclear,” which includes nuclear power, and “VRE100,” which excludes nuclear power and relies solely on renewables for clean energy. These scenarios represent power systems with distinct capacity and generation mixes, evaluated using the parameters outlined in Table 1. The findings are unequivocal: incorporating nuclear power, even with rather conservative cost assumptions, into Germany’s energy policy yields significant advantages across all metrics. A nuclear-inclusive power mix offers a more balanced, competitive, and stable market, enhanced energy security, and a more feasible pathway to decarbonisation. In contrast, excluding nuclear results in higher costs and complex challenges related to system integration and resource constraints, ultimately jeopardising climate goals.
Based on the analysis, the study proposes four policy recommendations:
1. Adopt a technology-inclusive policy: Develop a balanced energy strategy incorporating nuclear power alongside renewables, streamline permitting processes, and reduce barriers for all clean energy technologies to ensure climate goals and competitiveness.
2. Restart recently closed nuclear plants: Extend the lifetimes of recently shut-down reactors until 2050 to provide reliable firm power, lower costs, and support renewable energy integration.
3. Prepare for new nuclear construction: Establish regulatory frameworks, secure financing, and build workforce capacity to accelerate nuclear development in line with Germany’s 2045 climate targets.
4. Advance renewable energy deployment: Promote onshore wind, solar, and battery storage while addressing local conflicts, improving grid infrastructure, and enhancing flexibility solutions.
Sources
1 Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action of Germany (BMWK).
4 International Journal of Sustainable Energy (2024), What if Germany had invested in nuclear power?
5 Radiant Energy Group (2024), Restarting Germany’s Reactors: Feasibility and Schedule
