Seminar: How will we solve industry's electricity needs until 2035?

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Last Friday, Carl Hellesen, Head of Technology of Quantified Carbon, joined a seminar organized by Fossilfritt Sverige on how to solve Sweden’s electricity needs by 2035. Key participants included Maja Lundbäck, State Secretary to the Minister of Energy and Enterprise Ebba Busch, Kajsa Ryttberg-Wallgren, Chief Growth Officer at Stegra, and Markus Wråke, CEO of Energiforsk, who shared insights on the government’s role in energy policy—establishing frameworks and removing barriers to achieve Sweden’s clean electricity target of 300 TWh by 2045.

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Quantified Carbon is a key contributor to the NEPP (North European Energy Perspectives) program, led by Energiforsk, alongside Profu, EA, and Chalmers University. Together, these research groups are tasked with modeling pathways to meet Sweden’s future energy demands.

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As part of this work, we analysed two scenarios for future electricity demand: one with high demand reaching 280 TWh/year by 2040, and one with delayed demand reaching 200 TWh/year by 2040. Both scenarios assume that all additional demand can be connected and that customers are willing to pay for electricity, regardless of price.  The analysis highlights the following key conclusions:

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• Onshore wind power dominates new electricity production due to cost and timing advantages, though complementary solutions are essential to ensure system reliability.  

• Nuclear power expansion by 2040 is expected to have minimal impact on cost-effective wind power investments by 2035, assuming a perfect market without uncertainties.

• Electricity prices are likely to experience greater fluctuations both within and between future years, increasing the risk of imbalances between production investments and consumption.

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Looking ahead, the project will focus on modelling challenging scenarios, such as low water reservoir levels, minimal wind production, and cold weather. It will also aim to propose market changes both capable of stimulating investments in production and consumptions whilst ensuring grid system stability.