As global energy dynamics continue to evolve, the conversation around energy security has never been more critical. Recent events—soaring natural gas prices, the geopolitical implications of Russian gas imports, and US withdrawing from the Paris Agreement — highlight the urgent need to rethink energy security as well as incorporating these aspects to longer-term power system planning.
In the recent study that we made for WePlanet-DACH, two scenarios were compared for Germany’s 2045 energy landscape: “Nuclear” scenario (combines nuclear power with renewables) and “VRE100” scenario (relies solely on variable renewable energy). Our methodology incorporates both investment and dispatch optimisation, drawing on data from 33 historical weather years to develop reliable power systems. One of the main findings is illustrated in the figure below, which compares annual natural gas consumption under both scenarios.
From the modelling results, the “VRE100” demonstrates a higher average consumption around 144 TWh which is higher than 2023 levels (~100 TWh) (see Figure below). The increased natural gas consumption is driven by a significantly increased overall power demand due to electrification trends and a coal power phase-out due to high CO2 prices. The “Nuclear” scenario, in contrast, reduces gas consumption to 45 TWh annually, lowering exposure to volatile gas prices. Notably, the modelling assumes a CO2 price of 250 €/tCO2 as the key driver of emissions reductions which means that open-cycle gas power plants (which dominate in the modelling expansion) is a rather costly peaking plant alternative.
In addition to the average values, evaluating extreme levels of gas consumption is important. Peaks in demand or supply shortfalls often determine the system's capacity and infrastructure requirements. Managing such extremes is relevant for a secure operation, placing significant demands on reserves, storage, and infrastructure capacity.
The results reveal significant variations in natural gas consumption across the 33 weather years, with 144±75 TWh in the “VRE100” scenario and 45±31 TWh in the “Nuclear” scenario. This highlights the increased vulnerability to supply security when relying more heavily on wind and solar, as seen in the “VRE100” scenario. Our modelling reflects a highly decarbonised power system in 2045, raising critical questions about how countries will plan for backup capacity to cover peak loads amid growing intermittency. As we move in this direction, can we expect dispatchable power to consume less fuel on average while simultaneously increasing dependence on storage and infrastructure to handle challenging weather years?
The results underscore the critical role of nuclear power plants as a proven option to enhance energy security, mitigate geopolitical risks, and reduce reliance on fossil fuels. As Germany moves into the latter half of the 2020s, the need for reliable, dispatchable power to complement growing shares of wind and solar is becoming increasingly urgent—an issue recently highlighted in Handelsblatt (Feb. 4, link in comments). In the near term, nuclear power will have limited impact, while biogas and hydrogen face significant challenges in scalability and competitiveness. Given these uncertainties, natural gas-fired power plants—and potentially coal as a short-term bridge—are likely to play a key role in ensuring system reliability in the coming years.
Sources
https://epaper.handelsblatt.com/epaper/handelsblatt-2025-02-04-epa-2305/?interactivelayer=94330
