Power System Expansion in Germany
Exploring technology pathways for a reliable, resilient and fully decarbonised German power system by 2050.
the problem
Germany’s ambition to achieve climate neutrality by 2045 requires a fundamental transformation of its electricity system. Rapid electrification will increase electricity demand, while the phase-out of fossil fuels and nuclear power creates significant challenges around system reliability, investment needs and energy security.
At the same time, investment decisions must be made under considerable uncertainty. Future technology costs, commodity prices, renewable resource availability, build rates and the potential for demand-side flexibility can all materially affect the optimal configuration of the power system.
The challenge is therefore to understand which technology pathways can deliver a deeply decarbonised German power system while maintaining reliability, resilience and competitive electricity costs.
the APPROACH
We developed a dedicated multi-year capacity expansion optimisation framework to assess alternative pathways for Germany’s power system from 2030 to 2050.
The study compares four technology pathways — All Technologies, No CCS, No Nuclear, and No Nuclear/No CCS — under both optimistic and conservative assumptions for investment costs, commodity prices, technology expansion limits and build rates.
The modelling combines investment and dispatch optimisation with custom geospatial analysis of wind and solar potential and assumptions around demand-side flexibility. To capture the impact of weather variability, the model uses 33 historical weather years, allowing the resulting generation mix, dispatch schedules and electricity prices to be assessed under a wide range of conditions.
The scenarios use transparent assumptions grounded in German-specific conditions and a decarbonisation pathway targeting a 99% reduction in direct power-sector emissions compared with 1990 levels.
the oUTCOME
The study provides a detailed comparison of alternative technology pathways for Germany’s future power system, highlighting how technology availability and system constraints shape the transition to deep decarbonisation.
By combining capacity expansion and dispatch optimisation across 33 historical weather years, the analysis captures not only the required investment in generation capacity but also how different portfolios perform under varying weather conditions.
The results provide evidence on the trade-offs between technology choices, system reliability, costs and resilience, while highlighting the importance of considering a broad technology portfolio when assessing pathways towards climate neutrality.
The study also strengthens the evidence base for German energy-system planning by using transparent, Germany-specific assumptions and explicitly testing the implications of including or excluding technologies such as nuclear power and CCS.
deliverables
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