How industry can get enough electricity by 2035 – Final Report

Electrifying industry, transport and society is expected to raise Swedish electricity use sharply, and NEPP’s analyses rest on two scenarios for 2035: a low case of 185 TWh and a high case of 255 TWh. Most of the increase comes from industry, whose own use would rise from about 48 TWh today to between 84 and 145 TWh, with hydrogen production a large share. The high case matches the upper-range projections from Svenska kraftnät and the Swedish Energy Agency, while the low case is much lower but still a big rise. The outcome is uncertain, depending on permitting, grid capacity, technological maturity, competitiveness, the EU’s 2040 climate targets and geopolitical factors such as trade conflicts and China’s competitive position. Some industrial projects have already been postponed, so some conclusions may only materialise later than expected. New nuclear power could add a lot of generation but cannot realistically be running before 2035, while industry needs competitively priced electricity and confirmed grid connections well before then, so decisions in the coming years from policymakers, the energy sector and industry will be crucial. The report therefore looks at what the electricity system could look like in 2035 before new nuclear arrives and what near-term actions would make that possible, using energy system modelling from four groups (Chalmers, Ea Energianalyse, Profu and Quantified Carbon) under partly harmonised scenarios, whose results show both shared findings and important differences.